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What Drives Today’s Home Buyer
Analyst Says Don’t Expect Big Changes In 2018
Housing market fundamentals have been relatively steady, for some time now. Mortgage rates have been low by historical standards, prices have been rising, and inventory has been down. All three of these factors, combined with a growing economy and stronger job market, have kept the real-estate market in a kind of limbo. While the economy and favorable mortgage rates have helped drive buyer demand, there have also been fewer homes for sale, which helps push prices upward. In other words, there are a lot of positives but there are also challenges. Freddie Mac economist, Leonard Kiefer, says this year’s market will likely continue along the same path – though he predicts some improvement. “Income growth should remain positive, but not enough to offset the other factors affecting home buyer affordability,” Kiefer wrote in a recent article. “We’re expecting that interest rates will remain low, but gradually move higher. Housing construction should gradually pick up, helping to supply more homes to inventory-starved markets. More housing supply and modestly higher rates will lead to a moderation in house price growth.” More here.
Current Homeowners Say They’re Ready To Buy
The National Association of Realtors’ Housing Opportunities and Market Experience survey asks consumers about buying and selling a home, their financial situation, and their perceptions of the economy. According to the fourth quarter results, Americans are generally optimistic about the housing market, with majorities expressing that they feel now is both a good time to be selling a home and a good time to buy a home. However, some groups are more optimistic than others. For example, among current homeowners, 79 percent say they feel it is a good time to buy a home. On the other hand, just 60 percent of current renters feel as optimistic. Other groups that were more optimistic included those with household incomes above $100,000 and those living in the Midwest and South. So what do the results mean? Well, one takeaway is that an increasing number of current homeowners who want to move could mean a potential boost in the number of homes available for sale next year. That’s good news for all prospective home buyers, as an increase in for-sale inventory will help improve affordability conditions. More here.
The Gig Economy And Homeownership
Smartphones and the internet have given rise to a number of on-demand services that offer Americans the ability to supplement their income by providing work as independent contractors. Whether delivering groceries or ride sharing, many Americans are now working in what is known as the “gig economy.” In fact, as part of their third quarter National Housing Survey, Fannie Mae found nearly one-fifth of adults have worked in the gig economy. Generally speaking, these Americans have other full-time work, though younger respondents were more likely to rely on these types of jobs for income. Overall, however, participants in this type of work were more positive about their household income and financial outlook. But how does this type of job impact prospects for buying and owning a home? Well, that remains to be seen. Though gig-economy workers are generally more confident in their income, they also express concern about being able to qualify for a mortgage and save for a down payment. Particularly, among current renters, gig-economy workers were less likely to say they’d buy a home the next time they move. Also, there is some question about how underwriting standards handle what is becoming an increasingly popular way for Americans to make some money on the side. More here.
How Single-Family Rentals Slowed 1st Time Buyers
If you spend any time reading about real estate, you know that there has been a lot of discussion recently about inventory and first-time home buyers. Specifically, there are fewer homes available for sale and fewer first-time home buyers active in the market than is considered typical. Of course, there are many reasons that both of these things are true. Among them, slower-than-normal new home construction, student loan debt, and rising rent all play a role. But, according to a recent analysis from Zillow, there’s another reason that there are fewer homes on the market and fewer young people buying. According to the analysis, many of the affordable homes that would typically sell to first-time buyers were purchased by investors after home prices plummeted following the housing crash. These houses were then converted into rental properties. This, combined with rising demand for single-family rentals, has led to a six percent increase in the number of single-family homes rented out between 2007 and 2016. In short, there are fewer affordable homes to buy in many markets because those homes are currently being occupied as rental units. More here.
How To Know When It’s Time To Move
Are Home Price Increases Beginning To Slow?
Home prices have been increasing for some time now. Largely this is because, in many markets, there are more interested buyers than there are homes available for sale. Inventory shortages can cause more competition for the homes that are for sale, which leads to spiking prices and decreasing affordability conditions. This, of course, has been a concern for potential home buyers. But, according to new research, there may be reason to believe that the rate at which home prices have been increasing is beginning to slow. For example, the most recent Home Price Index from Black Knight Financial shows the rate of monthly price appreciation declined one third from the month before in September. That was the sixth consecutive month of slowing growth. Also, half of the nation’s 20 largest states and 17 of the biggest metro areas saw home prices fall last month. If this trend continues, it could be encouraging news for home buyers hoping to buy a house this winter or those looking toward a spring home purchase. More here.
Americans Feel Optimistic About Home Buying
An increasing number of Americans say they feel now is a good time to buy a house, according to the most recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index from Fannie Mae. The index – a monthly measure of how consumers feel about real estate, home prices, mortgage rates, job security, and their financial situation – is now nearing its all-time high, reached in September. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, says Americans’ perception of the real estate market is improving. “In November, the HPSI rebounded to near its all-time high, returning the index to its gradual upward trend and suggesting fairy stable consumer home-buying attitudes,” Duncan said. “These results are consistent with our expectation that the housing market will continue its modest expansion going forward.” Among respondents, there was a 7 percent increase in participants who said now was a good time to buy a house and a 4 percent increase in the number who feel it’s a good time to sell. More here.
