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The end of the year is typically the time when experts and prognosticators make predictions for the year ahead. And while it’s not easy to see into the future, year-end forecasts can give us an idea of which scenarios are likely to play out. Take Fannie Mae’s most recent forecast from their Economic and Strategic Research Group. Its experts say economic growth will begin to slow in 2019 but the real estate market may actually be well positioned. And that could be good news for home buyers. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, says mortgage rates and home sales will stabilize next year. “We maintain our call that the Fed will hike rates once more in December and two more times in 2019, despite rising market expectations of fewer hikes amid stock market volatility,” Duncan said. “If mortgage rates trend sideways next year, as we anticipate, and home price appreciation continues to moderate, improving affordability should breath some life into the housing market.” In other words, though conditions may still be challenging, home buyers should see a calmer market next year and the beginning of some relief. More here.
Traditionally, home ownership has been seen as part of settling down. Getting married and starting a family went hand-in-hand with buying a home and planting roots in a community. But though they’re still common motivating factors, marriage and children aren’t the only reasons someone might want to become a homeowner. And so there are an increasing number of single home buyers active in the housing market. Among them, women are outpacing men. In fact, according to the National Association of Realtors’ most recent numbers, 65 percent of home buyers in 2017 were married couples but 18 percent were single women. And while that may not seem like a lot, the percentage has risen in each of the last three years and has nearly doubled over the past 35 years. Additionally, single women home buyers outpace single men by a wide margin. One recent study found that in the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas, single women own more than 70,000 more homes than single men, with cities like New Orleans, Miami, and Birmingham, Ala., showing more than a quarter of households owned and occupied by single women. More here.
For a while now, there’s been a balance between the feeling that buying a home is becoming less affordable and the perception that the economy is getting stronger. Americans are concerned about rising home prices and mortgage rates but, at the same time, they’re also seeing more job opportunities and higher wages. How this might affect a decision about making a move is fairly obvious. In short, your feelings about whether or not it’s a good time for you to buy a house are likely tied to your feelings about your job security and income. If you’re feeling confident in your money, you’re more likely to consider buying. Which is part of the reason Fannie Mae’s monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index has been relatively unchanged over the past several months. The index – which measures Americans perceptions of the housing market, economy, and their personal financial situation – was virtually flat in November from the month before. Doug Duncan says housing sentiment has cooled but it’s been offset by optimism about the economy. “Consumers perceptions of growth in their household income reached a survey high this month, helping to absorb some of the impact of increasing mortgage rates on housing market activity,” Duncan said. “Meanwhile, the net share of consumers expecting home prices to increase over the next 12 months continues to moderate, dropping by 13 percentage points since this time last year.” More here.
